Water Is Key To Demise of Islam's Golden Age and Contemporary Turmoil

In a world dominated by authoritarian states, strife and lack of development, Muslims recall the early days when Muslim forces ruled an empire stretching from Spain to Central Asia and were the world’s leaders in science and the arts and ask themselves what went wrong. The answer, according to a just published book, may be water.

In a sweeping history of water, journalist Steven Solomon, argues that water has stood at the cradle and grave of great empires. Muslim armies harnessed the water management of the camel to turn the desert from an unproductive, isolating stretch of land into a highway of conquest, expansion and cultural exchange. Highly maneuverable dhows allowed them to dominate the Indian Ocean and extend lucrative trade routes from Indonesia’s Spice Islands to the Mediterranean.

Islam’s Golden Age began to crumble when Muslim forces became complacent about the need for continued innovation to improve the efficiency of water use and stay technologically ahead of their inherent scarcity of freshwater resources. Muslim naval forces failed to adapt to Christian gunpowder-based naval power. When nomadic Turks effectively occupied the Abbasid levers of power, they focused on water holes and seasonal grazing lands, allowing canal and irrigation systems to deteriorate.

A thousand years later, the Middle East is again on the front lines of a global freshwater crisis. It is the first region to have virtually run out of water, housing a host of countries with water tensions, conflicts and troubled states. Oil-rich Gulf states are flush with petro dollars invested in mega projects to diversify their economies and plan for a post-oil era, but they are unable or unwilling to ensure success by not committing the same mistakes that led to their ancestors’ decline.

A recent report by Riyadh-based NCB Capital warns that Gulf states have at best 550 cubic meters a year per person in renewable water resources compared to 89,000 cubic meters for every Canadian citizen. Yet, Gulf residents are among the world’s biggest water consumers. The United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) puts consumption in Saudi Arabia and the UAE at close to 1,000 cubic meters a person and approaching US levels of 1,648 meters.

While municipal consumption in the Gulf is the world’s second highest, only outstripped by Canada, agriculture is the real culprit in the Gulf. Efforts starting in the 1970s to achieve self-sufficiency have drained ground water reserves and with agriculture accounting for 80 percent of consumption but only two percent of GDP are now being rolled back. Gulf states have adopted a policy of a kind of agro-imperialism, buying huge tracts of land in impoverished countries in Africa, Asia and Eastern Europe to ensure future food security, but refuse to harness technologies such as hydroponics and drip-fed irrigation that would enable them to develop a smaller, more sustainable agricultural industry. “They don’t seem to want to know,” John Lawton, a Riyadh-based British agricultural consultant, told the Financial Times .

Yet, the history of water as a determinant of power teaches that correcting unsustainable situation is not enough. Boosting water supplies through desalination without seeking to curb demand produces new problems. Upgrading aging infrastructure increases efficiency and reduces water loss estimated in Saudi Arabia at 35 percent by the  World Bank but is only one of many policies Gulf states should be adopting.

To guarantee continued regional and global power, Gulf leaders and governments would have to continuously innovate and take bold and courageous decisions. Unlike 1,000 years ago that would involve largely unpopular regimes forging a different pact with the region’s population, one that is more open, liberal and transparent than the current deal in which authoritarian government is tolerated in exchange for cradle to grave welfare.

Subsidies for water in the Gulf are among the world’s highest, making the region’s water tariffs among the world’s lowest and removing a major incentive for greater water conservation.  The  Financial Times quotes Bahrain Water and Electricity Authority CEO Abdulmajeed Ali Alawadhu as saying that raising tariffs would be the easiest way to curb consumption “but that requires a political will.” In fact, it would be too risky says Jamro Kotilaine, NCB Capital chief economist and author of the water report. “In Bahrain, even the suggestion of raising prices can provoke demonstrations.”

Water, The Epic Struggle for Wealth, Power and Civilization by Steven Solomon, Harper Collins, 2010

GCC Water Resources

Mideast Water Crisis Produces Region's First Water Refugees

A two-part series by NPR focuses on the Middle East's worst water crisis in decades as a result of climate change, drought and mismanagement. The series focuses on the headwaters of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers, which affects Turkey, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon and the fact that this already troubled region is confronting a new phenomenon: water refugees.

Contrary to popular perception, water seldom is the single cause for violent conflict, but it certainly can accelerate and exacerbate tensions. Perhaps, the latest example in the region is Yemen, whose multiple conflicts are enhanced by a falling water table and acute water shortage. Water plays a key role in Turkey's relations with Iraq and Syria, who believe that Turkey uses its control of the Tigris and Euphrates head waters as a tool to realize its regional ambitions. NPR reports:

"Syria and Iraq blame Turkey's huge network of dams on the Tigris and Euphrates rivers for reducing water supplies by 50 percent.Turkey is the site of the headwaters of a river system that Syria and Iraq depend on. An informal agreement determines the flow downstream.

'When we had bad relations with Turkey, they reduced the flow of water despite the agreement, and now, thank God, we have excellent relations with Turkey, and hopefully, we will not see any cutoff of water,' Syrian economist Nabil)Sukkar says.

Turkey says there is enough water for everyone, but Syria and Iraq waste their share. (Hussein) Amery, (a Middle East water management expert and professor at the Colorado School of Mines. says the Turks are partly right. 'The issue is water but it goes far beyond water, he says. Amery says the key to head off a water crisis is more efficient management of a scarce resource. But he adds politics, not climate, is the problem. A lot of Arabs believe that Turkey is trying to assert itself as a regional superpower,' he says, "and water is being used as a tool to advance that interest"....

In Turkey, Gun Kut, a water expert at Istanbul's Bogazici University, expresses an often-heard criticism in response to Arab complaints: 'Quit wasting the water and there will be enough for everybody.' Kut says outdated farming techniques and bad water management decisions waste a dwindling resource. 'Simply insisting on others to release more and more water while the population is going up, the need for food is going up, won't work,' he says."

Indeed, for much of Turkey's modern history, Turkey viewed its control of the head waters of the Tigris and the Euphrates as a Turkish resource much like oil is an Arab resource. With other words, it was Turkey's right to control access to the rivers' waters. Former Turkish President Suleiman Demirel did not mince words, when he in 1992 inaugurated the Ataturk Dam, part of the Southeastern Anatolia Project, one of the world's biggest irrigation and electric power schemes. "We have a right to do anything we like," Demirel said at the dam's opening ceremony.

That attitude, however, may be changing as Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayip Erdogan seeks to position his country as a regional superpower. In a sign that Turkey is seeking cooperation rather than confrontation, Turkey and Syria agreed in the first week of January to joint management of some water resources.