In a world dominated by authoritarian states, strife and lack of development, Muslims recall the early days when Muslim forces ruled an empire stretching from Spain to Central Asia and were the world’s leaders in science and the arts and ask themselves what went wrong. The answer, according to a just published book, may be water.
In a sweeping history of water, journalist Steven Solomon, argues that water has stood at the cradle and grave of great empires. Muslim armies harnessed the water management of the camel to turn the desert from an unproductive, isolating stretch of land into a highway of conquest, expansion and cultural exchange. Highly maneuverable dhows allowed them to dominate the Indian Ocean and extend lucrative trade routes from Indonesia’s Spice Islands to the Mediterranean.
Islam’s Golden Age began to crumble when Muslim forces became complacent about the need for continued innovation to improve the efficiency of water use and stay technologically ahead of their inherent scarcity of freshwater resources. Muslim naval forces failed to adapt to Christian gunpowder-based naval power. When nomadic Turks effectively occupied the Abbasid levers of power, they focused on water holes and seasonal grazing lands, allowing canal and irrigation systems to deteriorate.
A thousand years later, the Middle East is again on the front lines of a global freshwater crisis. It is the first region to have virtually run out of water, housing a host of countries with water tensions, conflicts and troubled states. Oil-rich Gulf states are flush with petro dollars invested in mega projects to diversify their economies and plan for a post-oil era, but they are unable or unwilling to ensure success by not committing the same mistakes that led to their ancestors’ decline.
A recent report by Riyadh-based NCB Capital warns that Gulf states have at best 550 cubic meters a year per person in renewable water resources compared to 89,000 cubic meters for every Canadian citizen. Yet, Gulf residents are among the world’s biggest water consumers. The United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) puts consumption in Saudi Arabia and the UAE at close to 1,000 cubic meters a person and approaching US levels of 1,648 meters.
While municipal consumption in the Gulf is the world’s second highest, only outstripped by Canada, agriculture is the real culprit in the Gulf. Efforts starting in the 1970s to achieve self-sufficiency have drained ground water reserves and with agriculture accounting for 80 percent of consumption but only two percent of GDP are now being rolled back. Gulf states have adopted a policy of a kind of agro-imperialism, buying huge tracts of land in impoverished countries in Africa, Asia and Eastern Europe to ensure future food security, but refuse to harness technologies such as hydroponics and drip-fed irrigation that would enable them to develop a smaller, more sustainable agricultural industry. “They don’t seem to want to know,” John Lawton, a Riyadh-based British agricultural consultant, told the Financial Times .
Yet, the history of water as a determinant of power teaches that correcting unsustainable situation is not enough. Boosting water supplies through desalination without seeking to curb demand produces new problems. Upgrading aging infrastructure increases efficiency and reduces water loss estimated in Saudi Arabia at 35 percent by the World Bank but is only one of many policies Gulf states should be adopting.
To guarantee continued regional and global power, Gulf leaders and governments would have to continuously innovate and take bold and courageous decisions. Unlike 1,000 years ago that would involve largely unpopular regimes forging a different pact with the region’s population, one that is more open, liberal and transparent than the current deal in which authoritarian government is tolerated in exchange for cradle to grave welfare.
Subsidies for water in the Gulf are among the world’s highest, making the region’s water tariffs among the world’s lowest and removing a major incentive for greater water conservation. The Financial Times quotes Bahrain Water and Electricity Authority CEO Abdulmajeed Ali Alawadhu as saying that raising tariffs would be the easiest way to curb consumption “but that requires a political will.” In fact, it would be too risky says Jamro Kotilaine, NCB Capital chief economist and author of the water report. “In Bahrain, even the suggestion of raising prices can provoke demonstrations.”
Water, The Epic Struggle for Wealth, Power and Civilization by Steven Solomon, Harper Collins, 2010
GCC Water Resources
