by Steven Solomon
Grist.org
While leaders in Washington have been war-gaming the national security risks of climate change, they’ve only started to connect the dots to the closely related threats emanating from the growing crisis of global freshwater scarcity. At first blush, water and national security may not seem to be interlinked. But the reality, as narrated in my new book WATER: The Epic Struggle for Wealth, Power, and Civilization", is that the unfolding global water crisis increasingly influences the outcome of America’s two wars, homeland defense against international terrorism, and other key U.S. national-security interests, including the transforming planetary environment and world geopolitical order.
Former U.N. Secretary-General Boutros Boutros-Ghali famously predicted 25 years ago that the “next war in the Middle East will be fought over water.” While that has yet to come to pass, the greatest present danger stems from failing nation-states—and not just in the bone-dry Middle East. With world water use growing at twice the rate of human population over the last century, many of the Earth’s vital freshwater ecosystems are already critically depleted and being used unsustainably to support our global population of 6.5 billion, according the 2005 Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, and the situation can only be expected to get worse as the population pushes toward 9 billion by 2050. As great rivers run dry before reaching the sea, groundwater is mined deeper and deeper beyond replenishment levels, and water quality erodes with growing pollution, an explosive fault line is cleaving between freshwater Haves and Have-Nots across the political, economic, and social landscapes of the 21st century.
Among the water Have-Nots are the 3.6 billion who will live in countries that won’t be able to feed themselves within 15 years due largely to scarcity of water—likely to include giant India. Throughout history, states that have been unable to feed themselves with homegrown or reliably imported cheap food have stagnated, declined, and often collapsed, with grievous adjustments in living standards, population levels, and regional turmoil.
Health and humanitarian crises are likely to emanate from the dark side of the Have-Not divide where 1 billion abject poor lack regular access to clean, fresh water for minimal needs and 2.6 billion don’t have basic sanitation. Upriver water Have states increasingly exert control over the precious water flows to their dependent neighbors downstream, while within nations the wealthy and those with greatest political clout commonly enjoy the formidable competitive advantage of better, and often subsidized, access to the best water resources. Global warming exacerbates the water crisis with extreme, unpredictable floods, droughts, glacier melts, storm swells, and other water cycle–related depredations that fall disproportionately on already water-insecure, Have-Not regions and overwhelm existing, fragile water infrastructures. Such dislocating events are expected to create 150 million environmental refugees within a decade.
A tumultuous adjustment to the freshwater scarcity crisis lies ahead, and in our global society the feedback effects will buffet even the security of distant nations. Two cases from the headlines—Yemen and Pakistan—illustrate some of the problems and challenges.
Yemen
Globe. Arid Yemen is an impoverished, failing state, home to al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula, which helped to train and arm the would-be Detroit-bound, Christmas suicide bomber from Nigeria. The Yemeni government is not much better than a large, corrupt tribe competing for control of the nation’s diminishing resources through patronage payoffs and proxy alliances with other strong tribes. There is warfare in the north between Houthi tribesmen and Saudi-backed government forces, while politically and economically disaffected southerners are trying to secede. The government is also battling al-Qaida, which flourishes in ungoverned no-man’s-lands.
Terrorism—which claimed 17 U.S. sailor lives in the attack in Aden Harbor on the USS Cole in 2000, and was beaten back for a few years with the help of U.S. drones—is resurgent. The Yemeni government’s policy of routinely releasing captured or repatriated terrorists after little more than a promise not to do it again frustrates the Obama administration’s efforts to shut the Guantanamo Bay prison, where about half of the remaining 200 prisoners are Yemeni.
One of the world’s most dire freshwater scarcity crises underlies Yemen’s extreme poverty and faltering state. The average Yemeni lives at eight times below the world freshwater availability poverty line, and has 1/20th the world average. Less than half have access to enough clean, fresh water for basic needs, while five-sixths lack adequate sanitation. Illegal well drilling is ubiquitous. Yet when the government tried to remove state subsidies for the diesel fuel powering the illegal pumps, riots forced it to desist. The lion’s share of the groundwater is commandeered (and used wastefully in flood irrigation) to grow the cash crop qat, a narcotic stimulant chewed by Yemeni men and an integral part of Yemeni culture.
The net result is an ecological and human catastrophe unfolding in slow motion: Water tables around the country are plunging—in many places two to four times faster than the natural replenishment rate. Soaring 7 percent annual population growth, adding to the current 23 million Yemenis, compounds the water scarcity crisis. As much as two-thirds of rural violence, including some deaths, is related to water. As life in rural areas grows untenable, Yemenis are crowding into already swollen cities, where water riots are not uncommon and mosques dispense minimum free water as charity to the poorest. In the capital, San’a, 100 of the 180 wells in use a decade ago have run dry. Within just five to 10 years, it is widely predicted to become the world’s first capital city to literally run out of water.
To try to retain some control, the government delegated power over water to local authorities and urban water companies. Al-Qaida is strongest in places like ancient Marib and Shabwa where no water companies operate, and it gains the support of the populace by providing health care and helping to dig wells. What viable diplomatic policy America and its allies can pursue in such a situation is unclear, as international financial aid simply disappears down the government’s sieve of corruption.
Pakistan
Earth. As dangerous as Yemen is as a failed state, it pales in comparison to Pakistan, which is nuclear-armed, Taliban-besieged, regionally fractious, and severely water fragile. Osama bin Laden and Al-Qaida’s core leadership are believed to be hiding out in its rugged northwest regions.
American leaders had a big fright in April 2009 when Muslim fundamentalist Taliban fighters broke out of the northwestern provinces and struck within 25 miles of the Indus River’s giant Tarbela Dam, a critical site they’d attacked through terrorism before, and only 30 miles from the capital, Islamabad. The Tarbela Dam is the strategic heart of Pakistan’s irrigation, hydropower, and flood-control network. If the Taliban damaged or took control of the giant dam, and gained critical leverage over Pakistan’s food and energy security, the government’s viability would be imperiled.
While Pakistan’s American-trained elite counterterrorism forces and air power quickly rallied to beat back the Taliban, the U.S. responded to the Taliban’s show of strength in the spring of 2009 by accelerating its $7.5 billion five-year aid package to Pakistan—the lion’s share of which is focused on rehabilitating the nation’s perilously deteriorating and inadequate agricultural and hydropower waterworks. During her tumultuous October 2009 visit to Pakistan, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was repeatedly warned about the nation’s impending freshwater crisis.
At the heart of Pakistan’s crisis is the Indus River, its water lifeline and foundation of its farm economy, which provides the livelihood for 60 percent of Pakistanis. It’s already so badly overused that its water rarely reaches its now dried-up delta, and its huge fertile irrigated basin cropland is heavily reliant on overpumped groundwater and in dire need of a refurbished drainage system to remove poisoning salts. The Indus River also faces an alarming loss of up to a third of its flow by 2025 from the global warming–induced melting of its source Himalayan glaciers. In the same period, moreover, the nation’s population will grow 30 percent more to 225 million. Global climate change is further menacing monsoonal Pakistan with more unpredictable and intense seasonal floods and droughts. In a country where the water-storage capacity to buffer prolonged drought and loss of hydropower is only 30 days—1/30th as much as in the U.S. and 1/15th as much as in China—the effects of climate change can quickly become catastrophic and destabilizing.
Complicating Pakistan’s water crisis is that most of its water originates outside its borders, in archenemy, nuclear-armed India—with whom it has fought several wars and still heatedly disputes the Kashmir border region—as well as in Afghanistan and China. The Indus water dispute with India, which helped trigger the first war between the countries, was resolved with a 1960 treaty. But under the strain of population growth and climate change, the treaty is in dire need of renegotiation. One source of tension is that both countries are building new hydropower dams on Indus tributaries in the Kashmir. Pakistan is also highly suspicious of India’s increased aid to Afghanistan for dams on rivers that flow into Pakistan; it fears it is an Indian subterfuge to put Pakistan in an east-west hydrological vise once America leaves Afghanistan. For their part, the Pakistanis have awarded their dam contract to China, India’s adversary with whom it has its own water disputes and testy political relations.
The chessboard of Pakistan’s destiny is immensely complex, of course. But how it manages its critical water challenges—both from internal and external pressures—is one of the paramount variables in whether it will hold together as a coherent nation-state. Given its nukes, radical Muslim fundamentalists, and regional stature, what happens to it is of grave significance to American national security and Asian regional security.
The global water crisis is unfolding in many other places around the world, and in many different ways, posing vital national security challenges to the U.S. Israel’s conflicts with Palestinians and Syria include contentious disputes over the vital water supplies of the West Bank and Golan Heights, which Israel won in the 1967 war and which today account for two-thirds of Israel’s total freshwater. Iraq’s national viability and prosperity depend significantly on how much water its upstream neighbors Syria and Turkey (the Middle East’s rising water superpower) permit to flow downstream. How tightly China, in its dam-building frenzy for economic growth, squeezes the waters from the 10 major Asian rivers originating in its Tibetan plateau will affect the prosperity and political robustness of downstream nations across Asia, China’s geopolitical status, and with it, U.S. national security interests. Whether and how big a food importer India becomes as its own water management runs short will affect global food prices, and conditions of famine and health, in food import–dependent countries worldwide.
Water and national security may not seem at first to be interconnected. But they are-increasingly so as the global freshwater scarcity crisis deepens.
Thursday, March 4, 2010
UAE Puts Water Under Federal Control
In a move that will strengthen oil-rich Abu Dhabi as the most powerful emirate in the UAE, a loose federation of largely autonomous sheikdoms. In a statement , the UAE Ministry of Environment and Water said it was reviewing a draft law that would transfer water management from the sheikdoms to the central government to improve planning and efficiency.
With average consumption of 550 liters per person per day, water-poor UAE has one of the world’s highest domestic water consumption rates in the world, most of which is produced by desalination. After Saudi Arabia, the UAE with 30 desalination plants is the world’s largest desalinator. Abu Dhabi alone produces up to nine million tons of greenhouse gasses a year as a result of desalination.
UAE Environment and Water Minister Rashid bin Fahad said the new law was necessary because even within the various sheikdoms responsibility for water is shared by various authorities. Abu Dhabi is the emirate that has an independent authority to regulate desalination, water and electricity authorities.
Analysts says the law is likely to be resisted by some sheikdoms. “The question becomes how to get all emirates to subscribe to it,” says Shawki Barghouti, the director general of the International Center for Biosaline Agriculture in Dubai.
With average consumption of 550 liters per person per day, water-poor UAE has one of the world’s highest domestic water consumption rates in the world, most of which is produced by desalination. After Saudi Arabia, the UAE with 30 desalination plants is the world’s largest desalinator. Abu Dhabi alone produces up to nine million tons of greenhouse gasses a year as a result of desalination.
UAE Environment and Water Minister Rashid bin Fahad said the new law was necessary because even within the various sheikdoms responsibility for water is shared by various authorities. Abu Dhabi is the emirate that has an independent authority to regulate desalination, water and electricity authorities.
Analysts says the law is likely to be resisted by some sheikdoms. “The question becomes how to get all emirates to subscribe to it,” says Shawki Barghouti, the director general of the International Center for Biosaline Agriculture in Dubai.
Monday, March 1, 2010
Water Expo China 2010
Water Expo China 2010, China’s official show for the water industry, will be held at the China National Convention Center, Beijing, China from 17 – 19 November 2010 and is expected to attract a record number of visitors following the success of last year’s show.
Water Expo China is organised by Messe Frankfurt (Shanghai) Co Ltd and the Chinese Hydraulic Engineering Society (CHES). As it is the only show sponsored by China’s Ministry of Water Resources and approved by the Ministry of Commerce, it is the most effective way for exhibitors and visitors to meet key decision makers from China and the global water industry.
The 2009 show saw a record number of 252 exhibitors from 18 countries and regions presenting their products and technologies in 16,000 sqm, covering six halls. Visitor numbers also broke existing records with 10,239 from 30 countries and regions. Of these there were 10,009 domestic visitors and 230 international visitors. Among the domestic visitors were 4,500 provincial group visitors from 30 China provinces.
“For the 2010 show we are very pleased to announce our new venue,” said Mr Jason Cao, General Manager, Messe Frankfurt Shanghai Co Ltd. “We will be exhibiting at the China National Convention Center which is Beijing’s newest international conference venue. It’s an ideal place because there are various meeting rooms on the same floor as the exhibition center which make it suitable for both our exhibition and the concurrent summit and fringe programmes.”
Of extra interest to visitors and exhibitors will be the venue’s location in the heart of Beijing Olympic Green which houses the Water Cube (National Aquatic Centre) and the National Indoor Stadium. It is also only 30 minutes travel time from the airport.
Over the past several years, the show has seen a steady increase in the number of overseas pavilions. In 2009 there were new pavilions from Korea and Singapore and these pavilion organisers are currently discussing their return to the 2010 show.
Mr Cao added: “We are also having discussions with Japan, a pavilion supporter of two years, Israel which had a large pavilion with us in 2008 as well as various European countries. Many exhibitors are looking for additional benefits when they exhibit and find that showcasing their products under their country of origin is a powerful marketing tool.”
Water Expo China is the only platform directly connecting to government policy. Sponsored by China’s Ministry of Water Resource, exhibitors and visitors have the highly sought after opportunity to communicate with government officials to find out the latest policies.
At this year’s show, more than 30 Chinese municipal and provincial water authorities are invited to attend the show, presenting their achievements and announcing new projects.
To encourage dialogue, networking opportunities and to understand future trends, solutions and technology, a diverse programme of events will take place during Water Expo China 2010.
• The 5th China (International) Water Business Summit. The two-day 2009 summit attracted around 800 delegates
• International Water Resources Conference
• International Water Economy & Investment Conference
• Technology Conference covering flood control, rainwater harvesting, brackish water desalination and water metres
• Equipment & Product Release Seminar
For more information about Water Expo China, email Ms Rebecca Zheng Rebecca Zheng or visit Water Expo China
Water Expo China is organised by Messe Frankfurt (Shanghai) Co Ltd and the Chinese Hydraulic Engineering Society (CHES). As it is the only show sponsored by China’s Ministry of Water Resources and approved by the Ministry of Commerce, it is the most effective way for exhibitors and visitors to meet key decision makers from China and the global water industry.
The 2009 show saw a record number of 252 exhibitors from 18 countries and regions presenting their products and technologies in 16,000 sqm, covering six halls. Visitor numbers also broke existing records with 10,239 from 30 countries and regions. Of these there were 10,009 domestic visitors and 230 international visitors. Among the domestic visitors were 4,500 provincial group visitors from 30 China provinces.
“For the 2010 show we are very pleased to announce our new venue,” said Mr Jason Cao, General Manager, Messe Frankfurt Shanghai Co Ltd. “We will be exhibiting at the China National Convention Center which is Beijing’s newest international conference venue. It’s an ideal place because there are various meeting rooms on the same floor as the exhibition center which make it suitable for both our exhibition and the concurrent summit and fringe programmes.”
Of extra interest to visitors and exhibitors will be the venue’s location in the heart of Beijing Olympic Green which houses the Water Cube (National Aquatic Centre) and the National Indoor Stadium. It is also only 30 minutes travel time from the airport.
Over the past several years, the show has seen a steady increase in the number of overseas pavilions. In 2009 there were new pavilions from Korea and Singapore and these pavilion organisers are currently discussing their return to the 2010 show.
Mr Cao added: “We are also having discussions with Japan, a pavilion supporter of two years, Israel which had a large pavilion with us in 2008 as well as various European countries. Many exhibitors are looking for additional benefits when they exhibit and find that showcasing their products under their country of origin is a powerful marketing tool.”
Water Expo China is the only platform directly connecting to government policy. Sponsored by China’s Ministry of Water Resource, exhibitors and visitors have the highly sought after opportunity to communicate with government officials to find out the latest policies.
At this year’s show, more than 30 Chinese municipal and provincial water authorities are invited to attend the show, presenting their achievements and announcing new projects.
To encourage dialogue, networking opportunities and to understand future trends, solutions and technology, a diverse programme of events will take place during Water Expo China 2010.
• The 5th China (International) Water Business Summit. The two-day 2009 summit attracted around 800 delegates
• International Water Resources Conference
• International Water Economy & Investment Conference
• Technology Conference covering flood control, rainwater harvesting, brackish water desalination and water metres
• Equipment & Product Release Seminar
For more information about Water Expo China, email Ms Rebecca Zheng Rebecca Zheng or visit Water Expo China
Qat Gulps Yemen's Depleting Water Resources
Yemen's Ministry of Agriculture has begun supporting coffee, nuts, and grapes as alternative crops to qat because they require far less water. Qat farming has expands by 4000 to 6000 hectars a year and consumes 30% of the country's irrigation water. As a result, groundwater supplies around Sana'a are rapidly diminishing. More than 4000 wells in Sana'a have been dug to irrigate qat fields, reducing water levels by an average of 3-6 meters a year. The Agriculture Ministry in cooperation with the World Bank are opening a center to educate farmers on the need to reduce qat cultivation. In addition, Yemen will use part of a 7-million-euro grant from Germany's Technical Cooperation Agency (GTZ) to promote alternatives to qat farming
Researcher Tracks Water Use
Researcher Tracks Water Use
Studying how US industry uses scarce water resources
Just think, every time you feed Fido or flip a spoonful of sugar into your coffee cup, you use more than 300 gallons of water.
Checking the amounts of water it takes to make a $1 worth of sugar, cat and dog food or milk is part of a comprehensive study by Carnegie Mellon University researchers to document American industry's thirst for this scarce resource.
Chris T. Hendrickson, the Duquesne Light Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering, said the study shows that most water use by industry occurs indirectly as a result of processing, such as packaging and shipping of food crops to the supermarket, rather than direct use, like watering crops.
The study found it takes almost 270 gallons of water to produce a $1 worth of sugar; 140 gallons to make $1 worth of milk; and 200 gallons of water to make $1 worth of cat and dog food.
"The study gives us a way to look at how we might use water more efficiently and allows us to hone in on the sectors that use the most water so we can start generating ideas and technologies for better management," said Hendrickson, co-director of Carnegie Mellon's Green Design Institute, a major interdisciplinary research effort aimed at making an impact on environmental quality through design.
Hendrickson, along with civil engineering Ph.D. candidates Michael Blackhurst and Jordi Vidal, said his team is trying to help industries track and make better management decisions about how they use water, which makes up more than 72 percent of the earth's land surface.
The study, featured in the Feb. 23 edition of the journal Environmental Science & Technology, reports that a lot of water consumption is hidden because companies don't use all the water directly.
"We discovered that among 96 percent of the sectors evaluated, indirect use exceeded direct uses throughout the supply chain," Hendrickson said.
But Hendrickson and Blackhurst are quick to report that their data are national findings and do not apply regionally. In addition, they could only track withdrawals, and were unable to determine how much water was returned to the system or recycled.
"That is a big deal because water that gets degraded during industrial processes might not be suitable for future uses," Hendrickson said. "Effective water management is critical for social welfare and our fragile ecosystems."
Source: Redorbit.com
Studying how US industry uses scarce water resources
Just think, every time you feed Fido or flip a spoonful of sugar into your coffee cup, you use more than 300 gallons of water.
Checking the amounts of water it takes to make a $1 worth of sugar, cat and dog food or milk is part of a comprehensive study by Carnegie Mellon University researchers to document American industry's thirst for this scarce resource.
Chris T. Hendrickson, the Duquesne Light Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering, said the study shows that most water use by industry occurs indirectly as a result of processing, such as packaging and shipping of food crops to the supermarket, rather than direct use, like watering crops.
The study found it takes almost 270 gallons of water to produce a $1 worth of sugar; 140 gallons to make $1 worth of milk; and 200 gallons of water to make $1 worth of cat and dog food.
"The study gives us a way to look at how we might use water more efficiently and allows us to hone in on the sectors that use the most water so we can start generating ideas and technologies for better management," said Hendrickson, co-director of Carnegie Mellon's Green Design Institute, a major interdisciplinary research effort aimed at making an impact on environmental quality through design.
Hendrickson, along with civil engineering Ph.D. candidates Michael Blackhurst and Jordi Vidal, said his team is trying to help industries track and make better management decisions about how they use water, which makes up more than 72 percent of the earth's land surface.
The study, featured in the Feb. 23 edition of the journal Environmental Science & Technology, reports that a lot of water consumption is hidden because companies don't use all the water directly.
"We discovered that among 96 percent of the sectors evaluated, indirect use exceeded direct uses throughout the supply chain," Hendrickson said.
But Hendrickson and Blackhurst are quick to report that their data are national findings and do not apply regionally. In addition, they could only track withdrawals, and were unable to determine how much water was returned to the system or recycled.
"That is a big deal because water that gets degraded during industrial processes might not be suitable for future uses," Hendrickson said. "Effective water management is critical for social welfare and our fragile ecosystems."
Source: Redorbit.com
Tuesday, February 2, 2010
Corruption fuels crisis in water-poor Yemen
Published on Eurekastreet.com.au
James Dorsey February 02, 2010
As Yemen struggles to defeat Al Qa'ida, to end a tribal uprising in the north and to prevent the south from seceding, water could turn out to be the thing that tips the country over the edge. Like much of the Gulf, Yemen faces a reduced water supply resulting from climate change and from rising temperatures compounded by poor management.
Without radical reform of agricultural and other policies, the Yemeni capital Sana'a stands in a decade at most to become modern history's first capital to run out of water, according to a recent projection by the World Bank-funded Sana Water Basin Management Project. Rapidly dwindling water resources are likely to lead to disputes, reignite riots against a government already widely viewed as corrupt, nepotistic and incompetent and strengthen Al Qa'ida's Yemeni affiliate, Al Qa'ida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP).
One of the world's water poorest nations, Yemen is consuming its limited water resources at a far faster rate than it is able to replenish them. At Yemen's current seven per cent population growth rate, consumption can only increase. Yemen's population is set to almost double from 23 to 40 million over the next two decades.
Alongside unemployment, water is driving increased internal migration and urbanisation. Some 70 per cent of Sana'a's population either buy their water from private vendors or collect free water from local mosques. Vendors sell a liter of water for $0.15, a steep price in a country where incomes average $2 a day. The vendors draw their water from wells near the capital and deliver it in tanker trucks or jerry cans. With no enforced standard for potable water, quality varies.
Water extraction rates in Sana'a are believed to outstrip replenishment by a factor of four. Sana'a's water basin is close to collapse. So is the basin in Amran, 50 km north of Sana'a. Of the 180 wells tapped a decade ago by Sana'a's municipal water company, only 80 remain active. In some districts of the capital, taps have shut down. In others, supply is interrupted at least once a month.
In 2008, the Eurasia Group reported that 19 of Yemen's 21 aquifers were not being replenished and that in some cases non-renewable fossil water was being extracted. Wells in several parts of the country have run dry. The falling water table means wells have to be dug deeper at levels of 200 m and more where the water is contaminated.
Alongside rising domestic consumption, Yemen's water crisis is fueled by corruption, poor or no resource management and wasteful irrigation. Agriculture consumes most of Yemen's water. Qat, whose leaves are consumed as a daily stimulant by the majority of Yemeni men, is Yemen's foremost agricultural product. The more water the plant gets, the more productive it is, making water conservation a non-starter.
Yemen's lack of resource management is evident from the fact that the government created a separate ministry for water and environment only in 2004. Six years later, the country still suffers from lack of effective regulation and oversight, particularly with regard to groundwater. As a result, digging of wells remains uncontrolled and so does extraction of groundwater.
Water Minister Abdul Rahman Fadhl Iryani, unable to enforce licensing of new wells, estimates that 99 per cent of water drilling in Yemen is unlicensed. Moreover, Yemen does not regulate the import of drill rigs, which are not subject to custom duties or taxation. Yemen is estimated to have some 800 privately owned drill rigs, a number far higher than most other countries.
Subsidised diesel powers landowners' water pumps. Yemen has so far resisted donor demands that it abolish diesel subsidies ever since rioters fearing price hikes and higher inflation in 2005 forced the government to drop efforts to do so. Abolishment of subsidies would also cut into profits from diesel smuggling that are raked in by the country's elite.
Yet, the more the Salih government postpones biting into the sour apple, the sourer it gets. Donors may be betting on the president's son, whom Salih is grooming as his successor. A ten-point reform plan drafted by deputy finance minister, Jalal Omar Yaqoub, that includes abolishing subsidies and streamlining bureaucracy, has curried favor with the United States and other donors.
The water crisis plays into the hands of Al Qa'ida in the Arabian Peninsula , the Al Qa'ida offshoot that claimed responsibility for the failed Christmas Day bombing of a USA airliner. To compensate for its lack of control in large parts of the country, the government has delegated responsibility for water to local authorities, establishing water companies primarily in urban areas. It is in those tribal areas, like Marib and Shabwa, where no such companies were created that AQAP is strongest.
Economic and political reforms demanded by donors will have to go beyond cost-cutting to incorporate more efficient water use and distribution, pricing to encourage water conservation and development of sustainable agriculture. Without such reforms, water could be at the core of Yemen's next generation of conflict.
James DorseyJames M. Dorsey is a freelance journalist who has covered ethnic and religious conflict for the past 35 years for publications like The Christian Science Monitor and The Wall Street Journal. He has visited Yemen twice in recent months.
James Dorsey February 02, 2010
As Yemen struggles to defeat Al Qa'ida, to end a tribal uprising in the north and to prevent the south from seceding, water could turn out to be the thing that tips the country over the edge. Like much of the Gulf, Yemen faces a reduced water supply resulting from climate change and from rising temperatures compounded by poor management.
Without radical reform of agricultural and other policies, the Yemeni capital Sana'a stands in a decade at most to become modern history's first capital to run out of water, according to a recent projection by the World Bank-funded Sana Water Basin Management Project. Rapidly dwindling water resources are likely to lead to disputes, reignite riots against a government already widely viewed as corrupt, nepotistic and incompetent and strengthen Al Qa'ida's Yemeni affiliate, Al Qa'ida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP).
One of the world's water poorest nations, Yemen is consuming its limited water resources at a far faster rate than it is able to replenish them. At Yemen's current seven per cent population growth rate, consumption can only increase. Yemen's population is set to almost double from 23 to 40 million over the next two decades.
Alongside unemployment, water is driving increased internal migration and urbanisation. Some 70 per cent of Sana'a's population either buy their water from private vendors or collect free water from local mosques. Vendors sell a liter of water for $0.15, a steep price in a country where incomes average $2 a day. The vendors draw their water from wells near the capital and deliver it in tanker trucks or jerry cans. With no enforced standard for potable water, quality varies.
Water extraction rates in Sana'a are believed to outstrip replenishment by a factor of four. Sana'a's water basin is close to collapse. So is the basin in Amran, 50 km north of Sana'a. Of the 180 wells tapped a decade ago by Sana'a's municipal water company, only 80 remain active. In some districts of the capital, taps have shut down. In others, supply is interrupted at least once a month.
In 2008, the Eurasia Group reported that 19 of Yemen's 21 aquifers were not being replenished and that in some cases non-renewable fossil water was being extracted. Wells in several parts of the country have run dry. The falling water table means wells have to be dug deeper at levels of 200 m and more where the water is contaminated.
Alongside rising domestic consumption, Yemen's water crisis is fueled by corruption, poor or no resource management and wasteful irrigation. Agriculture consumes most of Yemen's water. Qat, whose leaves are consumed as a daily stimulant by the majority of Yemeni men, is Yemen's foremost agricultural product. The more water the plant gets, the more productive it is, making water conservation a non-starter.
Yemen's lack of resource management is evident from the fact that the government created a separate ministry for water and environment only in 2004. Six years later, the country still suffers from lack of effective regulation and oversight, particularly with regard to groundwater. As a result, digging of wells remains uncontrolled and so does extraction of groundwater.
Water Minister Abdul Rahman Fadhl Iryani, unable to enforce licensing of new wells, estimates that 99 per cent of water drilling in Yemen is unlicensed. Moreover, Yemen does not regulate the import of drill rigs, which are not subject to custom duties or taxation. Yemen is estimated to have some 800 privately owned drill rigs, a number far higher than most other countries.
Subsidised diesel powers landowners' water pumps. Yemen has so far resisted donor demands that it abolish diesel subsidies ever since rioters fearing price hikes and higher inflation in 2005 forced the government to drop efforts to do so. Abolishment of subsidies would also cut into profits from diesel smuggling that are raked in by the country's elite.
Yet, the more the Salih government postpones biting into the sour apple, the sourer it gets. Donors may be betting on the president's son, whom Salih is grooming as his successor. A ten-point reform plan drafted by deputy finance minister, Jalal Omar Yaqoub, that includes abolishing subsidies and streamlining bureaucracy, has curried favor with the United States and other donors.
The water crisis plays into the hands of Al Qa'ida in the Arabian Peninsula , the Al Qa'ida offshoot that claimed responsibility for the failed Christmas Day bombing of a USA airliner. To compensate for its lack of control in large parts of the country, the government has delegated responsibility for water to local authorities, establishing water companies primarily in urban areas. It is in those tribal areas, like Marib and Shabwa, where no such companies were created that AQAP is strongest.
Economic and political reforms demanded by donors will have to go beyond cost-cutting to incorporate more efficient water use and distribution, pricing to encourage water conservation and development of sustainable agriculture. Without such reforms, water could be at the core of Yemen's next generation of conflict.
James DorseyJames M. Dorsey is a freelance journalist who has covered ethnic and religious conflict for the past 35 years for publications like The Christian Science Monitor and The Wall Street Journal. He has visited Yemen twice in recent months.
Thursday, January 28, 2010
Water rises to top of Syrian Agenda
As the Syrian capital Damascus braces itself for another exceptionally cold winter week, severe water shortages as a result of climate change is leaping to the top of the government’s priorities. UN and Syrian government officials warn that that the water crisis coupled with environmental degradation is likely to worsen over the coming years. Torrential rains in Damascus that have overwhelmed drainage systems and turned the desultory trickle of the Barada river into a torrent are just one indicator of the mounting crisis.
Increased rainfall is doing nothing, however, to alleviate the country’s water shortage. “A study of rainfall over the past 25 years in Syria shows that the intensity is increasing, but the actual levels are either constant or, in some cases, decreasing,” The National quotes Faris Asfari, an agricultural engineer involved in compiling a detailed report on climate change in Syria, who consults for the UN as saying. “Increasingly the rain is torrential and that actually causes severe damage, especially to soil. It has a severe impact on the sustainability and productivity of the land it adds to desertification problems.”
Similarly, Jordan recently reported to the the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC that its water resources will be depleted by climate change even if the kingdom witnesses an increase in precipitation. The report warned that climate change will severely impact the quantity of monthly surface water runoff. It that if current rainfall levels increased by 20 per cent, it would not compensate for the water lost due to the expected rise in temperatures.
A Syrian government report compiled for last month’s environment summit in Copenhagen concluded that most Syrian cities were suffering from shortage of water as a result of reduced rainfall, severe drought and more frequent dust storms. As a result, some 300,000 people in the eastern region, once a thriving farming area have been forced off their land to mostly become internal refugees in Damascus. The government report warns that such dislocations are prompting a decline in standards of health and education. Residents in the central governorate of Hama say drought has dried up the Al Assi River whose water serviced the Al Qantara Hydrostation. They now depend on local wells available only at depths of 600 meters where it contains contaminants that make it unsafe for drinking.
Syrian officials say the situation is further aggravated by the absence of agreements, primarily with Israel, on how to equitably share inadequate water resources. Israel draws some 15 percent of its water supply from the Golan Heights conquered from Syria in 1967. The Heights run up to the eastern shore of the Sea of Galilee, Israel’s only freshwater lake, and include significant parts of the Jordan River’s catchment area. Control of water resources, and Israel’s insistence that it retain sovereignty over the Sea of Galilee, have been one of the main stumbling blocks in failed peace talks.
Nonetheless, environmental scientists say the Syrian government bears significant responsibility for water shortages and land degradation, with decades of mismanagement, corruption and inefficiency exacerbating existing problems. Land not fit for cultivation was widely farmed in the 1980s as part of a food security policy and although it was stopped in the 1990s, severe damage was done.
Syria uses 90 percent of its water for mostly inefficient irrigation. “Irrigation systems here are only 38 per cent efficient, which means we throw away 62 per cent of all of our national water supplies before it even reaches the crops,” Yousef Meslmani, the national environmental affairs project director with the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) in Damascus told . The National. “We have irrigation channels built on soluble rock – which is the worst thing you can do – and the engineers told them it was bad idea, but they did it.”
Increased rainfall is doing nothing, however, to alleviate the country’s water shortage. “A study of rainfall over the past 25 years in Syria shows that the intensity is increasing, but the actual levels are either constant or, in some cases, decreasing,” The National quotes Faris Asfari, an agricultural engineer involved in compiling a detailed report on climate change in Syria, who consults for the UN as saying. “Increasingly the rain is torrential and that actually causes severe damage, especially to soil. It has a severe impact on the sustainability and productivity of the land it adds to desertification problems.”
Similarly, Jordan recently reported to the the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC that its water resources will be depleted by climate change even if the kingdom witnesses an increase in precipitation. The report warned that climate change will severely impact the quantity of monthly surface water runoff. It that if current rainfall levels increased by 20 per cent, it would not compensate for the water lost due to the expected rise in temperatures.
A Syrian government report compiled for last month’s environment summit in Copenhagen concluded that most Syrian cities were suffering from shortage of water as a result of reduced rainfall, severe drought and more frequent dust storms. As a result, some 300,000 people in the eastern region, once a thriving farming area have been forced off their land to mostly become internal refugees in Damascus. The government report warns that such dislocations are prompting a decline in standards of health and education. Residents in the central governorate of Hama say drought has dried up the Al Assi River whose water serviced the Al Qantara Hydrostation. They now depend on local wells available only at depths of 600 meters where it contains contaminants that make it unsafe for drinking.
Syrian officials say the situation is further aggravated by the absence of agreements, primarily with Israel, on how to equitably share inadequate water resources. Israel draws some 15 percent of its water supply from the Golan Heights conquered from Syria in 1967. The Heights run up to the eastern shore of the Sea of Galilee, Israel’s only freshwater lake, and include significant parts of the Jordan River’s catchment area. Control of water resources, and Israel’s insistence that it retain sovereignty over the Sea of Galilee, have been one of the main stumbling blocks in failed peace talks.
Nonetheless, environmental scientists say the Syrian government bears significant responsibility for water shortages and land degradation, with decades of mismanagement, corruption and inefficiency exacerbating existing problems. Land not fit for cultivation was widely farmed in the 1980s as part of a food security policy and although it was stopped in the 1990s, severe damage was done.
Syria uses 90 percent of its water for mostly inefficient irrigation. “Irrigation systems here are only 38 per cent efficient, which means we throw away 62 per cent of all of our national water supplies before it even reaches the crops,” Yousef Meslmani, the national environmental affairs project director with the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) in Damascus told . The National. “We have irrigation channels built on soluble rock – which is the worst thing you can do – and the engineers told them it was bad idea, but they did it.”
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