Water Not Wars Likely To Change Middle East Politics

Water rather than ethnic and religious conflict is likely to be the real game changer in the Middle East in the next 20 years says Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) director Jon Alterman.  Writing in the Washington think tank’s  Middle East Notes and Comment , Alterman argues that the drying up of the region’s groundwater wells and decreasing water quality will push water to the top of the agenda, force widespread changes in lifestyle and strengthen a widespread sense of government failure and incompetence.

Already the Middle East is the world’s most water-starved regions with 10 of the 15 water-poorest countries located in the region. Ironically, Alterman notes that when Saudi King Abdul Aziz first invited geologists to explore his desert kingdom, he was hoping to find water rather than oil. Oil wealth has propelled urbanization, changed lifestyles in water-consuming ways and provided the funding to exploit massive underground water supplies to secure those lifestyles by, for example, achieving food self-sufficiency.

Such policies served in part to ensure the longevity of authoritarian regimes that needed to be seen to be providing standards of life people had become accustomed to with the flow of petrodollars. The Gulf states, where water if priced was heavily subsidized, rank today among the largest consumers of water per capita of the population.  As a result, conservation measures such as market-dictated pricing of water are proving to be politically contentious and potentially dangerous mechanisms which most regimes have so far shied away from.

Nonetheless, Arab regimes can no longer escape the fact that current water policies are unsustainable and that the region’s agricultural revolution if unchecked will render it dry in the not all too distant future. Saudi Arabia has drawn a first conclusion from this realization by declaring that it would phase out the growing of wheat in the kingdom by 2016.

Alterman warns that the Middle East’s wells are a finite resource that are being exploited to an extent far beyond their ability to replenish themselves. Already, wells are being dug ever deeper and producing water that is increasingly less pure. The Yemeni capital Sana’a is set to become in the next ten years the world’s first capital to run out of water. The Jordanian capital could follow Sana’a hot on its heels.

It’s a doomsday scenario: agriculture collapses and major cities are left with no water to serve their inhabitants. The fall will be harder in those parts of the Middle East that don’t have the petrodollars to fund expensive and energy-intensive desalination. More than ever, water will become political and a litmus test for already questionable government credibility. The political dividing lines would likely harden as a result of the fact that some of the Middle East’s largest agricultural water users are also among its most powerful families, including its rulers. This, Alterman notes, makes it all the more difficult to impose and enforce the changes needed to evade disaster.

Nevertheless, Alterman says, “the situation is not entirely hopeless.”  Alterman advocates reforming agricultural policies, enhancing farming methods, aggressively recycling waste water, enhancing government oversight of wells, introducing pricing regimes that would encourage conservation and investing in renovation of water supply systems. Some of those steps, governments could take without significant political risk and pain, others they are likely to see as so controversial that they could spark public expressions of disaffection.  The question is whether they recognize soon enough that they are between a rock and a hard place.

Deutsche Bank Argues For Higher Water Prices

Increasing water scarcity coupled with an absence of economic incentives has led to an investment shortfall of 400 to 500 billion Euros per year in the global water economy. The water sector remains underfinanced, as prices continue to be subsidized and are kept artificially low despite scarcity. The price for water does not reflect the real costs of this increasingly scarce resource, in particular in the agricultural sector. However, a price hike would entail severe social repercussions.


In terms of mere numbers, sufficient amounts of water are available on earth to ensure adequate supplies of freshwater. However, rainfall is seasonal and distributed unequally across regions, so that scarcity or drought do occur. Furthermore, water is essential to all life on this planet and cannot be replaced by any other commodity - which sets water apart from all other economic goods on earth. About 70% of water is presently being used in irrigation agriculture. Industry and the energy sector account for another 20%. Private households consume a mere 10%, mostly for such daily tasks as taking showers, flushing the toilet, and doing the laundry. Water is not being recycled, even though demand has steeply increased within the past 50 years due to rapid population growth. Firms increasingly view water as a decisive factor in their product development and profit margins. Many economic sectors are particularly dependent upon a constant supply of water: agriculture, food industry, energy, mining, chemicals and pharmaceuticals, producers of paper and cellulose, clothing industry, semi-conductor industry, and tourism. In the near future, water availability and access to recycling technologies will be major points of consideration for firms. As water scarcity increases, so will political conflicts. In many countries, the state regulates the water sector. However, the politically inspired water price could soon become a problem, since it neither reflects supply and demand, nor covers costs in poor countries in particular. The low price is problematic even in the developed world, as it leads to water being wasted.


The challenge for economists is the following: Water prices will have to be higher and irrigation methods more efficient in agriculture. Water-deprived regions should focus on the production of goods that require little water, while policymakers should refrain from maligning genetic engineering and biotechnology. Trade needs to adapt as well: Countries which need a lot of water for their agricultural products, would do better to import these. Cities need to improve the maintenance of their water systems and to modernize their infrastructures. In many countries, there will be no way around raising water prices. These adaption costs could be financed through international climate funds. Finally, state and private firms should work more closely together in public and private partnerships to address the water challenge.

Read the Report in German: http://www.dbresearch.de/PROD/DBR_INTERNET_DE-PROD/PROD0000000000253960.pdf">Weltwassermaerkte 

The Atlas of Water

There is virtually no area of life that does not in one way or another depend on water. It quenches our thirst, fuels agriculture, provides energy and recreation, sustains non-human life and is part of virtually anything humans do and have. In short, as Maggie Black and Jannet King, authors of The Atlas of Water note: “Water means life.”

As a result, optimists describe water as the blue gold of the 21st century; doomsayers it will spark major conflict. Whichever camp one belongs to, mapping the world’s water, in maps, sidebars and illustrations and noting that management rather the notion of a depleting resource like in the case of oil is key to stimulating informed debate. And that is exactly what Black and King have done.

In six chapters, they look at water at water as a resource, the environmental pressures on water, water’s effect on quality of life and as en economic driver, damaged water and ensuring that water continues to maintain and enhance life in the future. In the process, they focus of pricing mechanisms as tools to for conservation and maintenance, the emotional debate on privatization and ways to prevent and correct damage being done to the resource.

Distribution is a key issue in ensuring supply. That is complicated by the fact that a majority of humans live in areas with an inadequate water supply on a global scale. Populous nations like India and China have relatively small proportions of the world’s water. India accounts for 16 percent of the world’s population but only three percent of its water, China has a 19 percent share of the world’s population, but only six percent of its water. The same is true for major metropolitan areas like Los Angeles or Perth. The Atlas of Water identifies the problem but also shows how it can be addressed.

The Atlas of Water is not meant to be an enjoyable read. Rather it is a fascinating encyclopedia of water meant to be a guide and reference for water professionals as well as educators

• The Atlas of Water by Maggie Black and Jannet King, University of California Press

Saudi Desalination Plant Promises Cheaper Water

In a region dependent on fossil fuel-driven desalination plants, Saudi Arabia hopes to significantly reduce the cost of producing potable water from the salty waters of the Gulf with the Gulf’s first solar-powered desalination plant. If successful, the Saudi example could encourage other oil and sun-rich Gulf states, who rank among the world’s biggest carbon emitters, to reduce their emissions by building similar plants..

The solar-powered plant is being built by the King Abdulaziz City for Science and Technology (KACST), the epicenter of the kingdom’s efforts to break its puritan Islamic mould in a bid to ensure technological and economic development, and IBM, which has made water one of its key areas of focus.

“The culmination of our joint research initiatives has enabled us to radically reduce the cost of water through the development of nanotechnologies that revolutionize traditional desalination methods and renewable energy sources,” Takreem el Tohamy, IBM general manager for the Middle East and North Africa, told The National.

Traditional desalination plants in Saudi Arabia produce a cubic meter of water at a relatively high cost of $.067 to $1.47 compared to Singapore cubic meter and the United States, whose cost can be as little as $0.46 per cubic meter.

Located in Al Khafji, the solar-powered will also reduce cost by employing membranes instead of boiling processes to remove the salt from seawater, IBM and KACST said in a statement.IBM announced last year it had developed a new energy-eficient membrane that has a longer lifespan than previous materials. The Al Khafji plant will generate fresh water by pushing seawater through membranes to remove the salt. The solar component of the plant will produce the electricity needed to drive the machinery.

The project’s scale will overshadow pilot solar desalination plants that have been built in a number of Gulf countries, including a plant that opened in Abu Dhabi’s Al Gharbia region last year with a daily capacity of 68.2 cubic meters. Gulf countries have been trying to build cost-effective solar desalination plants for decades. Abu Dhabi built a plant at Umm al Nar in the 1980s, but it proved to be economically infeasible.

IBM and KACST predict the cost reduction despite the fact that the new plant will use electricity from concentrated solar technology that produces power at a cost many times higher than power stations fired by natural gas or oil. Electricity will come from concentrated photovoltaics, a technology that blends traditional photovoltaic cells with mirrors, lenses and motors to concentrate the rays of sun, thereby more than doubling the efficiency of the panels.

The technology is significantly more expensive than traditional photovoltaic cells alone but takes up less space and operates better in hot climates. The increased cost of using electricity from solar panels at Al Khafji will be offset by the vast efficiency gains of using the new membranes rather than heat to take the salt out of seawater.

Groping For Water in Saudi Arabia

Saudia Arabia has launched a major effort to search for water, according to Der Spiegel.

To do so, it has hired a German geologist German development agency GTZ, which is drilling holes up to 2,000 meters deep to conduct pumping tests and apply complex measuring techniques and computer models. The tests are designed determine how much fossil groundwater remains stored between layers of rock beneath the Arabian Peninsula. GTZ is assisted by the Helmholtz Center for Environmental Research (UFZ) in Leipzig, which uses supercomputers to simulate groundwater currents from the last ice age until today.

The Saudi effort is prompted by the realization that its current pattern of water consumption is unsustainable and that water supply would run out in 3o years at current consumption rates. With its research, GTZ expects Saudi Arabia to become a test case for arid regions, which make up about 40 percent of the world's land area.

Fossil groundwater is the only natural water source in a region without rivers and lakes, where every raindrop is an event. After the last ice age, when the climate on the Arabian Peninsula was similar, in terms of temperature and precipitation, to that of savanna regions today, the water seeped away into the ground, eventually accumulating in hollow spaces between layers of sedimentary rock.

Most of this water is in eastern Saudi Arabia, home to most of the country's oil and natural gas reserves. As a result, geologists searching for oil sometimes find water and vice-versa. And like oil, the precious drops of water from the last ice age are finite. Too much of that water is now being pumped out of ever-deeper wells, causing the water table to drop. This in turn allows salt water to seep into the groundwater along the coasts.

To tackle its water scarcity problem, Saudi Arabia has already halted its attempts to turn its deserts into green pastures and achieve food security by promoting domestic agriculture. To do so, the agriculture ministry was stripped of its discretionary authority in all things water. In 2007, the government canceled all subsidies for wheat farming and said the country's wheat production would be wound down by 2016. Instead Saudi Arabia is moving to buy agricultrual land in Africa and Asia and to import wheat and other agricultural products. It also is encouraging small farmers in Saudi Arabia return to traditional agriculture and plant drought-resistant date palms, or grow profitable vegetable crops in greenhouses.

"Our biggest challenge is the conflict between agriculture and other water users," Deputy Water Minister Mohammed Al-Saud told Der Spiegel. "Anyone who wants to develop agriculture does so at the expense of water. And you can't conserve water without having a negative impact on agriculture."

Eventually, the minister hopes to make Saudi Arabia a model for other countries by monitoring water consumption on farms in real time, which would allow the government to develop a comprehensive water strategy. GTZ is preparing the first step in that direction by developing a computer model that would determine for any location in the country the nearest aquifer and calculate its size where it would make most sense to drill a well.

Jordan Identifies Water as a Policy Priority

One of the world’s water-poorest countries, Jordan celebrated World Water Day by identifying its water shortage as the greatest challenge to its development. Per capita water consumption in Jordan, according to the Jordanian water and irrigation ministry is far below the international water poverty line of 1,000 cubic meters per person per year. The United Nations ranks Jordan alongside Kuwait, the UAE and Bahrain as one of the world’s ten most thirsty countries with a per capita water consumption of 145 cubic meters a year. The country’s water shortage is heightened by the influx of hundreds of thousands of refugees from Iraq and an annual 2.3 percent population growth.

The situation is made worse by constantly increasing demand. The country’s population of six million is growing at a rate of 2.3 per cent annually. Jordan’s water resources have also come under increased strain with the influx of 500,000 to 700,000 Iraqi refugees since the US-led war in Iraq began in 2003.

“One of the key challenges the water sector faces is that the supply-and-demand equation is not balanced,” The National quotes Water and Irrigation Minister Mohammad Najar as saying. “Also water resources are limited, and the (process) of depleting underground water … are major challenges the ministry is facing.” Najar said the ministry was having difficulty stopping illegal pumping of underground and surface water and enforcing laws and regulations. Officials say mismanagement and lack of maintenance further contribute to the shortage. An estimated 40 percent of the kingdom’s water is lost annually to worn-out pipes, leakage and water theft.

The National quotes water expert Dureid Mahasneh as also blaming ill-advised agricultural policies. “We wrongly export our water in the forms of tomatoes to Europe,” Mahasneh says. “There is no need to grow apricots and peaches in winter as they consume so much water. The priority should be for drinking water.”

The government hopes that two major projects will help alleviate the shortage. The Dissi project, which is expected to provide Amman by 2013 with 100 cubic meters of water per year from an ancient desert aquifer 325km south of the capital near the border with Saudi Arabia. The project, which kicked off this month, is expected to be complete in 2013 at a cost of US$990m (Dh3.6 billion). The other is a controversial plan to build a canal linking the Red Sea and the Dead Sea Canal at an estimated $2bn. The project has long been a target for environmentalists and been mired in the intricacies of the Arab-Israeli conflict.

The Story of Bottled Water

The Story of Bottled Water, being releasing on March 22, 2010, employs the Story of Stuff style to tell the fast-paced, fact-filled story of manufactured demand—how you get Americans to buy more than half a billion bottles of water every week when it already flows from the tap. Over five minutes, the film explores the bottled water industry’s attacks on tap water and its use of seductive, environmental-themed advertising to cover up the mountains of plastic waste it produces. The film concludes with a call to take back the tap, not only by making a personal commitment to avoid bottled water, but by supporting investments in clean, available tap water for all.

The Story of Bottled Water