Water Not Wars Likely To Change Middle East Politics

Water rather than ethnic and religious conflict is likely to be the real game changer in the Middle East in the next 20 years says Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) director Jon Alterman.  Writing in the Washington think tank’s  Middle East Notes and Comment , Alterman argues that the drying up of the region’s groundwater wells and decreasing water quality will push water to the top of the agenda, force widespread changes in lifestyle and strengthen a widespread sense of government failure and incompetence.

Already the Middle East is the world’s most water-starved regions with 10 of the 15 water-poorest countries located in the region. Ironically, Alterman notes that when Saudi King Abdul Aziz first invited geologists to explore his desert kingdom, he was hoping to find water rather than oil. Oil wealth has propelled urbanization, changed lifestyles in water-consuming ways and provided the funding to exploit massive underground water supplies to secure those lifestyles by, for example, achieving food self-sufficiency.

Such policies served in part to ensure the longevity of authoritarian regimes that needed to be seen to be providing standards of life people had become accustomed to with the flow of petrodollars. The Gulf states, where water if priced was heavily subsidized, rank today among the largest consumers of water per capita of the population.  As a result, conservation measures such as market-dictated pricing of water are proving to be politically contentious and potentially dangerous mechanisms which most regimes have so far shied away from.

Nonetheless, Arab regimes can no longer escape the fact that current water policies are unsustainable and that the region’s agricultural revolution if unchecked will render it dry in the not all too distant future. Saudi Arabia has drawn a first conclusion from this realization by declaring that it would phase out the growing of wheat in the kingdom by 2016.

Alterman warns that the Middle East’s wells are a finite resource that are being exploited to an extent far beyond their ability to replenish themselves. Already, wells are being dug ever deeper and producing water that is increasingly less pure. The Yemeni capital Sana’a is set to become in the next ten years the world’s first capital to run out of water. The Jordanian capital could follow Sana’a hot on its heels.

It’s a doomsday scenario: agriculture collapses and major cities are left with no water to serve their inhabitants. The fall will be harder in those parts of the Middle East that don’t have the petrodollars to fund expensive and energy-intensive desalination. More than ever, water will become political and a litmus test for already questionable government credibility. The political dividing lines would likely harden as a result of the fact that some of the Middle East’s largest agricultural water users are also among its most powerful families, including its rulers. This, Alterman notes, makes it all the more difficult to impose and enforce the changes needed to evade disaster.

Nevertheless, Alterman says, “the situation is not entirely hopeless.”  Alterman advocates reforming agricultural policies, enhancing farming methods, aggressively recycling waste water, enhancing government oversight of wells, introducing pricing regimes that would encourage conservation and investing in renovation of water supply systems. Some of those steps, governments could take without significant political risk and pain, others they are likely to see as so controversial that they could spark public expressions of disaffection.  The question is whether they recognize soon enough that they are between a rock and a hard place.

Deutsche Bank Argues For Higher Water Prices

Increasing water scarcity coupled with an absence of economic incentives has led to an investment shortfall of 400 to 500 billion Euros per year in the global water economy. The water sector remains underfinanced, as prices continue to be subsidized and are kept artificially low despite scarcity. The price for water does not reflect the real costs of this increasingly scarce resource, in particular in the agricultural sector. However, a price hike would entail severe social repercussions.


In terms of mere numbers, sufficient amounts of water are available on earth to ensure adequate supplies of freshwater. However, rainfall is seasonal and distributed unequally across regions, so that scarcity or drought do occur. Furthermore, water is essential to all life on this planet and cannot be replaced by any other commodity - which sets water apart from all other economic goods on earth. About 70% of water is presently being used in irrigation agriculture. Industry and the energy sector account for another 20%. Private households consume a mere 10%, mostly for such daily tasks as taking showers, flushing the toilet, and doing the laundry. Water is not being recycled, even though demand has steeply increased within the past 50 years due to rapid population growth. Firms increasingly view water as a decisive factor in their product development and profit margins. Many economic sectors are particularly dependent upon a constant supply of water: agriculture, food industry, energy, mining, chemicals and pharmaceuticals, producers of paper and cellulose, clothing industry, semi-conductor industry, and tourism. In the near future, water availability and access to recycling technologies will be major points of consideration for firms. As water scarcity increases, so will political conflicts. In many countries, the state regulates the water sector. However, the politically inspired water price could soon become a problem, since it neither reflects supply and demand, nor covers costs in poor countries in particular. The low price is problematic even in the developed world, as it leads to water being wasted.


The challenge for economists is the following: Water prices will have to be higher and irrigation methods more efficient in agriculture. Water-deprived regions should focus on the production of goods that require little water, while policymakers should refrain from maligning genetic engineering and biotechnology. Trade needs to adapt as well: Countries which need a lot of water for their agricultural products, would do better to import these. Cities need to improve the maintenance of their water systems and to modernize their infrastructures. In many countries, there will be no way around raising water prices. These adaption costs could be financed through international climate funds. Finally, state and private firms should work more closely together in public and private partnerships to address the water challenge.

Read the Report in German: http://www.dbresearch.de/PROD/DBR_INTERNET_DE-PROD/PROD0000000000253960.pdf">Weltwassermaerkte 

The Atlas of Water

There is virtually no area of life that does not in one way or another depend on water. It quenches our thirst, fuels agriculture, provides energy and recreation, sustains non-human life and is part of virtually anything humans do and have. In short, as Maggie Black and Jannet King, authors of The Atlas of Water note: “Water means life.”

As a result, optimists describe water as the blue gold of the 21st century; doomsayers it will spark major conflict. Whichever camp one belongs to, mapping the world’s water, in maps, sidebars and illustrations and noting that management rather the notion of a depleting resource like in the case of oil is key to stimulating informed debate. And that is exactly what Black and King have done.

In six chapters, they look at water at water as a resource, the environmental pressures on water, water’s effect on quality of life and as en economic driver, damaged water and ensuring that water continues to maintain and enhance life in the future. In the process, they focus of pricing mechanisms as tools to for conservation and maintenance, the emotional debate on privatization and ways to prevent and correct damage being done to the resource.

Distribution is a key issue in ensuring supply. That is complicated by the fact that a majority of humans live in areas with an inadequate water supply on a global scale. Populous nations like India and China have relatively small proportions of the world’s water. India accounts for 16 percent of the world’s population but only three percent of its water, China has a 19 percent share of the world’s population, but only six percent of its water. The same is true for major metropolitan areas like Los Angeles or Perth. The Atlas of Water identifies the problem but also shows how it can be addressed.

The Atlas of Water is not meant to be an enjoyable read. Rather it is a fascinating encyclopedia of water meant to be a guide and reference for water professionals as well as educators

• The Atlas of Water by Maggie Black and Jannet King, University of California Press

Groping For Water in Saudi Arabia

Saudia Arabia has launched a major effort to search for water, according to Der Spiegel.

To do so, it has hired a German geologist German development agency GTZ, which is drilling holes up to 2,000 meters deep to conduct pumping tests and apply complex measuring techniques and computer models. The tests are designed determine how much fossil groundwater remains stored between layers of rock beneath the Arabian Peninsula. GTZ is assisted by the Helmholtz Center for Environmental Research (UFZ) in Leipzig, which uses supercomputers to simulate groundwater currents from the last ice age until today.

The Saudi effort is prompted by the realization that its current pattern of water consumption is unsustainable and that water supply would run out in 3o years at current consumption rates. With its research, GTZ expects Saudi Arabia to become a test case for arid regions, which make up about 40 percent of the world's land area.

Fossil groundwater is the only natural water source in a region without rivers and lakes, where every raindrop is an event. After the last ice age, when the climate on the Arabian Peninsula was similar, in terms of temperature and precipitation, to that of savanna regions today, the water seeped away into the ground, eventually accumulating in hollow spaces between layers of sedimentary rock.

Most of this water is in eastern Saudi Arabia, home to most of the country's oil and natural gas reserves. As a result, geologists searching for oil sometimes find water and vice-versa. And like oil, the precious drops of water from the last ice age are finite. Too much of that water is now being pumped out of ever-deeper wells, causing the water table to drop. This in turn allows salt water to seep into the groundwater along the coasts.

To tackle its water scarcity problem, Saudi Arabia has already halted its attempts to turn its deserts into green pastures and achieve food security by promoting domestic agriculture. To do so, the agriculture ministry was stripped of its discretionary authority in all things water. In 2007, the government canceled all subsidies for wheat farming and said the country's wheat production would be wound down by 2016. Instead Saudi Arabia is moving to buy agricultrual land in Africa and Asia and to import wheat and other agricultural products. It also is encouraging small farmers in Saudi Arabia return to traditional agriculture and plant drought-resistant date palms, or grow profitable vegetable crops in greenhouses.

"Our biggest challenge is the conflict between agriculture and other water users," Deputy Water Minister Mohammed Al-Saud told Der Spiegel. "Anyone who wants to develop agriculture does so at the expense of water. And you can't conserve water without having a negative impact on agriculture."

Eventually, the minister hopes to make Saudi Arabia a model for other countries by monitoring water consumption on farms in real time, which would allow the government to develop a comprehensive water strategy. GTZ is preparing the first step in that direction by developing a computer model that would determine for any location in the country the nearest aquifer and calculate its size where it would make most sense to drill a well.

Jordan Identifies Water as a Policy Priority

One of the world’s water-poorest countries, Jordan celebrated World Water Day by identifying its water shortage as the greatest challenge to its development. Per capita water consumption in Jordan, according to the Jordanian water and irrigation ministry is far below the international water poverty line of 1,000 cubic meters per person per year. The United Nations ranks Jordan alongside Kuwait, the UAE and Bahrain as one of the world’s ten most thirsty countries with a per capita water consumption of 145 cubic meters a year. The country’s water shortage is heightened by the influx of hundreds of thousands of refugees from Iraq and an annual 2.3 percent population growth.

The situation is made worse by constantly increasing demand. The country’s population of six million is growing at a rate of 2.3 per cent annually. Jordan’s water resources have also come under increased strain with the influx of 500,000 to 700,000 Iraqi refugees since the US-led war in Iraq began in 2003.

“One of the key challenges the water sector faces is that the supply-and-demand equation is not balanced,” The National quotes Water and Irrigation Minister Mohammad Najar as saying. “Also water resources are limited, and the (process) of depleting underground water … are major challenges the ministry is facing.” Najar said the ministry was having difficulty stopping illegal pumping of underground and surface water and enforcing laws and regulations. Officials say mismanagement and lack of maintenance further contribute to the shortage. An estimated 40 percent of the kingdom’s water is lost annually to worn-out pipes, leakage and water theft.

The National quotes water expert Dureid Mahasneh as also blaming ill-advised agricultural policies. “We wrongly export our water in the forms of tomatoes to Europe,” Mahasneh says. “There is no need to grow apricots and peaches in winter as they consume so much water. The priority should be for drinking water.”

The government hopes that two major projects will help alleviate the shortage. The Dissi project, which is expected to provide Amman by 2013 with 100 cubic meters of water per year from an ancient desert aquifer 325km south of the capital near the border with Saudi Arabia. The project, which kicked off this month, is expected to be complete in 2013 at a cost of US$990m (Dh3.6 billion). The other is a controversial plan to build a canal linking the Red Sea and the Dead Sea Canal at an estimated $2bn. The project has long been a target for environmentalists and been mired in the intricacies of the Arab-Israeli conflict.

Oman’s ancient aflaj system, once used in warfare by attackers to cut off precious water supply to communities under siege, is now facing dry spells that threaten farmers with lower crop production. The falaj -- widely viewed as an ancient remarkable feat of engineering although little is known about its origins -- collects groundwater through a natural infiltration process that then flows to the surface by gravity.

Oman has some 11,000 aflaj canals that are key to rural farming communities, in fact increasingly so. Oman’s agriculture ministry says aflaj water production has risen from 500 million cubic meters of irrigation water in 1985 to 1.6 billion in 2008. The ministry attributes the rise to the emergence of new farms. For many of the farmers dependent on aflaj, the system is their only water source because hooking up to the government’s water supply is too expensive.

Like much of the rest of the Middle East, Oman is struggling with a gap between water supply and demand. By 2025, water demand is expected to increase to 7.5 billion cubic meters. The gap is already effecting agricultural production. Khalfan Hamood al Toby, who owns a 90-hectare farm in Sawadi in Oman’s Batnah region, told

Thursday, March 4, 2010

UAE Puts Water Under Federal Control

In a move that will strengthen oil-rich Abu Dhabi as the most powerful emirate in the UAE, a loose federation of largely autonomous sheikdoms. In a statement , the UAE Ministry of Environment and Water said it was reviewing a draft law that would transfer water management from the sheikdoms to the central government to improve planning and efficiency.

With average consumption of 550 liters per person per day, water-poor UAE has one of the world’s highest domestic water consumption rates in the world, most of which is produced by desalination. After Saudi Arabia, the UAE with 30 desalination plants is the world’s largest desalinator. Abu Dhabi alone produces up to nine million tons of greenhouse gasses a year as a result of desalination.

UAE Environment and Water Minister Rashid bin Fahad said the new law was necessary because even within the various sheikdoms responsibility for water is shared by various authorities. Abu Dhabi is the emirate that has an independent authority to regulate desalination, water and electricity authorities.

Analysts says the law is likely to be resisted by some sheikdoms. “The question becomes how to get all emirates to subscribe to it,” says Shawki Barghouti, the director general of the International Center for Biosaline Agriculture in Dubai.

Qat Gulps Yemen's Depleting Water Resources

Yemen's Ministry of Agriculture has begun supporting coffee, nuts, and grapes as alternative crops to qat because they require far less water. Qat farming has expands by 4000 to 6000 hectars a year and consumes 30% of the country's irrigation water. As a result, groundwater supplies around Sana'a are rapidly diminishing. More than 4000 wells in Sana'a have been dug to irrigate qat fields, reducing water levels by an average of 3-6 meters a year. The Agriculture Ministry in cooperation with the World Bank are opening a center to educate farmers on the need to reduce qat cultivation. In addition, Yemen will use part of a 7-million-euro grant from Germany's Technical Cooperation Agency (GTZ) to promote alternatives to qat farming

Researcher Tracks Water Use

Researcher Tracks Water Use

Studying how US industry uses scarce water resources

Just think, every time you feed Fido or flip a spoonful of sugar into your coffee cup, you use more than 300 gallons of water.

Checking the amounts of water it takes to make a $1 worth of sugar, cat and dog food or milk is part of a comprehensive study by Carnegie Mellon University researchers to document American industry's thirst for this scarce resource.

Chris T. Hendrickson, the Duquesne Light Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering, said the study shows that most water use by industry occurs indirectly as a result of processing, such as packaging and shipping of food crops to the supermarket, rather than direct use, like watering crops.

The study found it takes almost 270 gallons of water to produce a $1 worth of sugar; 140 gallons to make $1 worth of milk; and 200 gallons of water to make $1 worth of cat and dog food.

"The study gives us a way to look at how we might use water more efficiently and allows us to hone in on the sectors that use the most water so we can start generating ideas and technologies for better management," said Hendrickson, co-director of Carnegie Mellon's Green Design Institute, a major interdisciplinary research effort aimed at making an impact on environmental quality through design.

Hendrickson, along with civil engineering Ph.D. candidates Michael Blackhurst and Jordi Vidal, said his team is trying to help industries track and make better management decisions about how they use water, which makes up more than 72 percent of the earth's land surface.

The study, featured in the Feb. 23 edition of the journal Environmental Science & Technology, reports that a lot of water consumption is hidden because companies don't use all the water directly.

"We discovered that among 96 percent of the sectors evaluated, indirect use exceeded direct uses throughout the supply chain," Hendrickson said.

But Hendrickson and Blackhurst are quick to report that their data are national findings and do not apply regionally. In addition, they could only track withdrawals, and were unable to determine how much water was returned to the system or recycled.

"That is a big deal because water that gets degraded during industrial processes might not be suitable for future uses," Hendrickson said. "Effective water management is critical for social welfare and our fragile ecosystems."

Source: Redorbit.com

Corruption fuels crisis in water-poor Yemen

Published on Eurekastreet.com.au

James Dorsey February 02, 2010

As Yemen struggles to defeat Al Qa'ida, to end a tribal uprising in the north and to prevent the south from seceding, water could turn out to be the thing that tips the country over the edge. Like much of the Gulf, Yemen faces a reduced water supply resulting from climate change and from rising temperatures compounded by poor management.

Without radical reform of agricultural and other policies, the Yemeni capital Sana'a stands in a decade at most to become modern history's first capital to run out of water, according to a recent projection by the World Bank-funded Sana Water Basin Management Project. Rapidly dwindling water resources are likely to lead to disputes, reignite riots against a government already widely viewed as corrupt, nepotistic and incompetent and strengthen Al Qa'ida's Yemeni affiliate, Al Qa'ida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP).

One of the world's water poorest nations, Yemen is consuming its limited water resources at a far faster rate than it is able to replenish them. At Yemen's current seven per cent population growth rate, consumption can only increase. Yemen's population is set to almost double from 23 to 40 million over the next two decades.

Alongside unemployment, water is driving increased internal migration and urbanisation. Some 70 per cent of Sana'a's population either buy their water from private vendors or collect free water from local mosques. Vendors sell a liter of water for $0.15, a steep price in a country where incomes average $2 a day. The vendors draw their water from wells near the capital and deliver it in tanker trucks or jerry cans. With no enforced standard for potable water, quality varies.

Water extraction rates in Sana'a are believed to outstrip replenishment by a factor of four. Sana'a's water basin is close to collapse. So is the basin in Amran, 50 km north of Sana'a. Of the 180 wells tapped a decade ago by Sana'a's municipal water company, only 80 remain active. In some districts of the capital, taps have shut down. In others, supply is interrupted at least once a month.

In 2008, the Eurasia Group reported that 19 of Yemen's 21 aquifers were not being replenished and that in some cases non-renewable fossil water was being extracted. Wells in several parts of the country have run dry. The falling water table means wells have to be dug deeper at levels of 200 m and more where the water is contaminated.

Alongside rising domestic consumption, Yemen's water crisis is fueled by corruption, poor or no resource management and wasteful irrigation. Agriculture consumes most of Yemen's water. Qat, whose leaves are consumed as a daily stimulant by the majority of Yemeni men, is Yemen's foremost agricultural product. The more water the plant gets, the more productive it is, making water conservation a non-starter.

Yemen's lack of resource management is evident from the fact that the government created a separate ministry for water and environment only in 2004. Six years later, the country still suffers from lack of effective regulation and oversight, particularly with regard to groundwater. As a result, digging of wells remains uncontrolled and so does extraction of groundwater.

Water Minister Abdul Rahman Fadhl Iryani, unable to enforce licensing of new wells, estimates that 99 per cent of water drilling in Yemen is unlicensed. Moreover, Yemen does not regulate the import of drill rigs, which are not subject to custom duties or taxation. Yemen is estimated to have some 800 privately owned drill rigs, a number far higher than most other countries.

Subsidised diesel powers landowners' water pumps. Yemen has so far resisted donor demands that it abolish diesel subsidies ever since rioters fearing price hikes and higher inflation in 2005 forced the government to drop efforts to do so. Abolishment of subsidies would also cut into profits from diesel smuggling that are raked in by the country's elite.

Yet, the more the Salih government postpones biting into the sour apple, the sourer it gets. Donors may be betting on the president's son, whom Salih is grooming as his successor. A ten-point reform plan drafted by deputy finance minister, Jalal Omar Yaqoub, that includes abolishing subsidies and streamlining bureaucracy, has curried favor with the United States and other donors.

The water crisis plays into the hands of Al Qa'ida in the Arabian Peninsula , the Al Qa'ida offshoot that claimed responsibility for the failed Christmas Day bombing of a USA airliner. To compensate for its lack of control in large parts of the country, the government has delegated responsibility for water to local authorities, establishing water companies primarily in urban areas. It is in those tribal areas, like Marib and Shabwa, where no such companies were created that AQAP is strongest.

Economic and political reforms demanded by donors will have to go beyond cost-cutting to incorporate more efficient water use and distribution, pricing to encourage water conservation and development of sustainable agriculture. Without such reforms, water could be at the core of Yemen's next generation of conflict.
James DorseyJames M. Dorsey is a freelance journalist who has covered ethnic and religious conflict for the past 35 years for publications like The Christian Science Monitor and The Wall Street Journal. He has visited Yemen twice in recent months.

Yemen’s Water Crisis Threatens Unrest and Strengthens Al Qa’ida

As Yemen struggles to defeat Al Qa’ida, end a tribal uprising in the north and prevent the south from seceding, water could turn out to be the lubricant that tips the country over the edge. Without radical reform of agricultural and other policies, the Yemeni capital Sana’a stands in a decade at most to become modern history’s first capital to run out of water, according to a recent projection by the World Bank-funded Sana Water Basin Management Project. Rapidly dwindling water resources are likely to lead to disputes and reignite riots against a government already widely viewed as corrupt, nepotistic and incompetent.

One of the world’s water poorest nations, Yemen is consuming its limited water resources at a far faster rate than it is able to replenish them. At Yemen’s current seven percent population growth rate, consumption can only increase. Yemen’s population is set to almost double from 23 to 40 million over the next two decades. 

Alongside unemployment, water is driving increased internal migration and urbanization.

Some 70 percent of Sana’a’s population either buy their water from private vendors or collect free water from local mosques. Vendors sell a liter of water for $0.15, a steep price in a country where incomes average $2 a day. The vendors draw their water from wells near the capital and deliver it in tanker trucks or jerry cans. With no enforced standard for potable water, quality varies.

Water extraction rates in Sanaa are believed to outstrip replenishment by a factor of four. Sana’a’s water basin is close to collapse. So is the basin in Amran, 50 kilometers north of Sana’a. Of the 180 wells tapped a decade ago by Sana’a’s municipal water company, only 80 remain active. In some districts of the capital, taps have shut down. In others, supply is interrupted at least once a month.

In 2008, the Eurasia Group reported that 19 of Yemen’s 21 aquifers were not being replenished and that in some cases nonrenewable fossil water was being extracted. Wells in several parts of the country have run dry. The falling water table means wells have to be dug deeper at levels of 200 meters and more where the water is contaminated. 

Alongside rising domestic consumption, Yemen’s water crisis is fueled by corruption, poor or no resource management and wasteful irrigation. Agriculture consumes most of Yemen’s water. Qat, whose leaves are consumed as a daily stimulant by the vast majority of Yemeni men, is Yemen’s foremost agricultural product. The more water the plant gets, the more productive is, making water conservation a non-starter.

Yemen’s lack of resource management is evident from the fact that the government created a separate ministry for water and environment only in 2004. Six years later, the country still suffers from lack of effective regulation and oversight, particularly with regard to groundwater. As a result, digging of wells remains uncontrolled and so does extraction of groundwater. Water Minister Abdul Rahman Fadhl Iryani, unable to enforce licensing of new wells, estimates that 99% of water drilling in Yemen is unlicensed. Moreover, Yemen does not regulate the import of drill rigs, which are not subject to custom duties or taxation. Yemen is estimated to have some 800 privately owned drill rigs, a number far higher than most other countries.

Subsidized diesel powers landowners’ water pumps. Yemen has so far resisted donor demands that it abolish diesel subsidies ever since rioters fearing price hikes and higher inflation in 2005 forced the government to drop efforts to do so. Abolishment of subsidies would also cut into profits from diesel smuggling being raked in by the country’s elite.

The water crisis plays into the hands of Al Qa’ida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), the AQAP offshoot that claimed responsibility for the failed Christmas day bombing of a USA airliner. To compensate for its lack of control in large parts of the country, the government has delegated responsibility for water to local authorities, establishing water companies primarily in urban areas. It is in those areas like Marib and Shabwa where no such companies were created that AQAP is particularly strong.