Russia Commits to Fighting Central Asian Drugs and Terrorism

The Obama administration has welcomed Russia’s revived interest in influencing developments in Central Asia as the United States looks to next year withdraw its forces from Afghanistan. Admitting that the United States was unable to meet the needs of nations like Afghanistan and Pakistan, US Assistant Secretary of State Philip J. Crowley said agreements reach at this month’s summit in the Black Sea resort of Sochi between Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and Central Asian leaders focused on stabilizing the region and combating terrorism and drugs trafficking contributed to US strategy in the region. 

Medvedev’s talks with the leaders of Afghanistan, Pakistan and Tajikistan come two months after Russia launched an international effort at a forum in Moscow to combat drugs trafficking in Afghanistan. During the Sochi summit Medvedev promised to deepen economic ties with Central Asian nations, revive Soviet-era energy and social development project, significantly increase flood-aid to Pakistan and accelerate and expand Russian helicopter production, especially of the Mi-17 and Mi-35 for export to the region. Russia is already refurbishing some 140 Soviet-era installations in Afghanistan, such as hydroelectric stations, bridges, wells, and irrigation systems in deals valued at more than $1-billion. 

Medvedev further announced in Sochi that Russia would spearhead a World Bank-sponsored program to expand hydro-electric dams in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan that would supply surplus electricity to Afghanistan and Pakistan. The four presidents agreed to link Central Asia to the CIS railway system by building a railroad and highway that will connect Pakistan and Tajikistan. 

US officials say renewed Russian involvement in Central Asia is fueled by concern in Moscow that regional terrorism and drugs trafficking will fuel separatism in the Black Sea basin. Russia’s renewed commitment comes two decades after Soviet troops fought a 10-year bloody war in the country that lies in many ways at the root of Afghanistan’s current problems.

Religion and Politics

Damon Linker has published in   http://www.tnr.com/book/review/what-religion"> The New Republic a well-written and coherently argues review of Ian Buruma’s just published http://press.princeton.edu/titles/9110.html"> ‘Taming the Gods: Religion On Three Continents.”  

Unfortunately, The New Republic does not have a comment option on its website.

Linker takes Buruma to task for what he apparently sees as too broad a definition of religion by supposedly defining it as any strongly held opinion rather than a cluster of beliefs and practices related to the divine or the sacred. Buruma allegedly crosses the line in Linker’s mind when he describes liberal Western anti-Muslim rhetoric as “curiously religious.”

The criticism ignores the degree to which the culture of religion permeates education and culture even I secular societies and as a result also often informs attitudes of secularists and atheists. Examples abound:

a)      a) Turks look down on Arabs whom they ruled for centuries because “the Arabs betrayed us” by supporting the British against the Ottomans in the early part of the 20^th century. Few secular Turks realizes that in using that argument they are employing the Sunni principle that all Muslims belong to the ummah, the community of the faithful, and should not turn against it.

b)      b) Secular and atheist Jews define often define themselves as culturally Jewish even though they do not practice religion

c)  

             c) Puritanism in American politics is religiously inspired

d)     

Th  d) The moral tone in Dutch or Scandinavian foreign policy stems from Calvanism

e)      
Al   e) Alienated or marginalized Diaspora communities as well as communities in conflict zones often hark back to religion as the only framework they can relate to or find solace in.

In his recently published personal memoir of the conflict in Kashmir, http://books.simonandschuster.com/Curfewed-Night/Basharat-Peer/9781439109106">Curfewed Night, Kashmir journalist Basharat Peer describes responses to years of brutal Indian attempts to quash a nationalist insurgency. He writes:

“Shameena and Majid , who had a lost a son, were wading through the painfully slow bureaucratic procedures to find a job for their other son, and they didn’t have enough resources to pay for treatment of their younger son with psychological disorders. All they seemed to have was each other and faith. Hussein, who refused to marry after he was tortured, prayed regularly to find the strength to deal with his predicament. I had seen my parents credit God for saving their lives and increase their prayers after they survived the mine blast. (Dr.) Shahid told me that even the doctors at the crowded psychiatric hospitals recommended a reliance on faith. God and his saints seem to have become the psychiatrists with the largest practice in Kashmir; faith was essentially a support system.” 

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Egypt Threatens Nile Basin Agreement

Ministers of the nine African Nile River littoral nations are moving ahead with plans to establish a permanent body tasked with determining equitable use of the world’s longest river despite unresolved differences between Egypt and Sudan. Agreement among seven of the nine states is expected to be finalized next month. The nine countries, grouped in the World Bank-sponsored Nile Basin Iniiative, failed at a meeting earlier this month in the Egyptian resort of Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, to reach final agreement.

Next month’s agreement would crown some ten years of torturous efforts to agree on a mechanism to equitably distribute water and could create a model for other conflict-prone river basins. Egypt and Sudan have charged the agreement could threatn their historical right to water security. Time will whether the two major littoral states have the power to thwart next month’s planned agreement. Speaking to the Egyptian parliament, Egyptian water and irrigation minister Mohammed Allam warned that “if the Nile basin countries unilaterally signed the agreement it would be considered the announcement of the Nile Basin Initiative’s death.”

Egypt and Sudan base their rights on past treaties to which other Nile riparian states were not parties. The most recent of these treated was signed by Egypt and Sudan in 1959. Under that treaty Egypt is entitled yearly to 55.5 billion cubic meters of the 84 billion cubic meters of water that reach it’s High Aswan Dam each year. Egypt and Sudan insist that the rights they derive from this and an earlier treaty be incorporated in any future agreement.

The majority of Nile riparian states who were not signatories of those treaties insist that they are no obliges to recognize them or bound by them and reject the concept of historical rights. As an alternative to the planned new body that would have to negotiate the terms of equitable distribution, Egypt is pushing for creation of Nile River Basin Commission that would be a deliberative body authorized to take decisions only by consensus.

Egypt argues that the rights it derives from past treaties do not threaten the water security of downstream riparian states. Egyptian officials note that those rights account for only five percent of the Nile’s total reserves of 1,600 billion cubic meters. They also point out that with the exception of Ethiopia, Egypt’s concern about water security is the most acute.

Water Not Wars Likely To Change Middle East Politics

Water rather than ethnic and religious conflict is likely to be the real game changer in the Middle East in the next 20 years says Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) director Jon Alterman.  Writing in the Washington think tank’s  Middle East Notes and Comment , Alterman argues that the drying up of the region’s groundwater wells and decreasing water quality will push water to the top of the agenda, force widespread changes in lifestyle and strengthen a widespread sense of government failure and incompetence.

Already the Middle East is the world’s most water-starved regions with 10 of the 15 water-poorest countries located in the region. Ironically, Alterman notes that when Saudi King Abdul Aziz first invited geologists to explore his desert kingdom, he was hoping to find water rather than oil. Oil wealth has propelled urbanization, changed lifestyles in water-consuming ways and provided the funding to exploit massive underground water supplies to secure those lifestyles by, for example, achieving food self-sufficiency.

Such policies served in part to ensure the longevity of authoritarian regimes that needed to be seen to be providing standards of life people had become accustomed to with the flow of petrodollars. The Gulf states, where water if priced was heavily subsidized, rank today among the largest consumers of water per capita of the population.  As a result, conservation measures such as market-dictated pricing of water are proving to be politically contentious and potentially dangerous mechanisms which most regimes have so far shied away from.

Nonetheless, Arab regimes can no longer escape the fact that current water policies are unsustainable and that the region’s agricultural revolution if unchecked will render it dry in the not all too distant future. Saudi Arabia has drawn a first conclusion from this realization by declaring that it would phase out the growing of wheat in the kingdom by 2016.

Alterman warns that the Middle East’s wells are a finite resource that are being exploited to an extent far beyond their ability to replenish themselves. Already, wells are being dug ever deeper and producing water that is increasingly less pure. The Yemeni capital Sana’a is set to become in the next ten years the world’s first capital to run out of water. The Jordanian capital could follow Sana’a hot on its heels.

It’s a doomsday scenario: agriculture collapses and major cities are left with no water to serve their inhabitants. The fall will be harder in those parts of the Middle East that don’t have the petrodollars to fund expensive and energy-intensive desalination. More than ever, water will become political and a litmus test for already questionable government credibility. The political dividing lines would likely harden as a result of the fact that some of the Middle East’s largest agricultural water users are also among its most powerful families, including its rulers. This, Alterman notes, makes it all the more difficult to impose and enforce the changes needed to evade disaster.

Nevertheless, Alterman says, “the situation is not entirely hopeless.”  Alterman advocates reforming agricultural policies, enhancing farming methods, aggressively recycling waste water, enhancing government oversight of wells, introducing pricing regimes that would encourage conservation and investing in renovation of water supply systems. Some of those steps, governments could take without significant political risk and pain, others they are likely to see as so controversial that they could spark public expressions of disaffection.  The question is whether they recognize soon enough that they are between a rock and a hard place.

Deutsche Bank Argues For Higher Water Prices

Increasing water scarcity coupled with an absence of economic incentives has led to an investment shortfall of 400 to 500 billion Euros per year in the global water economy. The water sector remains underfinanced, as prices continue to be subsidized and are kept artificially low despite scarcity. The price for water does not reflect the real costs of this increasingly scarce resource, in particular in the agricultural sector. However, a price hike would entail severe social repercussions.


In terms of mere numbers, sufficient amounts of water are available on earth to ensure adequate supplies of freshwater. However, rainfall is seasonal and distributed unequally across regions, so that scarcity or drought do occur. Furthermore, water is essential to all life on this planet and cannot be replaced by any other commodity - which sets water apart from all other economic goods on earth. About 70% of water is presently being used in irrigation agriculture. Industry and the energy sector account for another 20%. Private households consume a mere 10%, mostly for such daily tasks as taking showers, flushing the toilet, and doing the laundry. Water is not being recycled, even though demand has steeply increased within the past 50 years due to rapid population growth. Firms increasingly view water as a decisive factor in their product development and profit margins. Many economic sectors are particularly dependent upon a constant supply of water: agriculture, food industry, energy, mining, chemicals and pharmaceuticals, producers of paper and cellulose, clothing industry, semi-conductor industry, and tourism. In the near future, water availability and access to recycling technologies will be major points of consideration for firms. As water scarcity increases, so will political conflicts. In many countries, the state regulates the water sector. However, the politically inspired water price could soon become a problem, since it neither reflects supply and demand, nor covers costs in poor countries in particular. The low price is problematic even in the developed world, as it leads to water being wasted.


The challenge for economists is the following: Water prices will have to be higher and irrigation methods more efficient in agriculture. Water-deprived regions should focus on the production of goods that require little water, while policymakers should refrain from maligning genetic engineering and biotechnology. Trade needs to adapt as well: Countries which need a lot of water for their agricultural products, would do better to import these. Cities need to improve the maintenance of their water systems and to modernize their infrastructures. In many countries, there will be no way around raising water prices. These adaption costs could be financed through international climate funds. Finally, state and private firms should work more closely together in public and private partnerships to address the water challenge.

Read the Report in German: http://www.dbresearch.de/PROD/DBR_INTERNET_DE-PROD/PROD0000000000253960.pdf">Weltwassermaerkte 

The Atlas of Water

There is virtually no area of life that does not in one way or another depend on water. It quenches our thirst, fuels agriculture, provides energy and recreation, sustains non-human life and is part of virtually anything humans do and have. In short, as Maggie Black and Jannet King, authors of The Atlas of Water note: “Water means life.”

As a result, optimists describe water as the blue gold of the 21st century; doomsayers it will spark major conflict. Whichever camp one belongs to, mapping the world’s water, in maps, sidebars and illustrations and noting that management rather the notion of a depleting resource like in the case of oil is key to stimulating informed debate. And that is exactly what Black and King have done.

In six chapters, they look at water at water as a resource, the environmental pressures on water, water’s effect on quality of life and as en economic driver, damaged water and ensuring that water continues to maintain and enhance life in the future. In the process, they focus of pricing mechanisms as tools to for conservation and maintenance, the emotional debate on privatization and ways to prevent and correct damage being done to the resource.

Distribution is a key issue in ensuring supply. That is complicated by the fact that a majority of humans live in areas with an inadequate water supply on a global scale. Populous nations like India and China have relatively small proportions of the world’s water. India accounts for 16 percent of the world’s population but only three percent of its water, China has a 19 percent share of the world’s population, but only six percent of its water. The same is true for major metropolitan areas like Los Angeles or Perth. The Atlas of Water identifies the problem but also shows how it can be addressed.

The Atlas of Water is not meant to be an enjoyable read. Rather it is a fascinating encyclopedia of water meant to be a guide and reference for water professionals as well as educators

• The Atlas of Water by Maggie Black and Jannet King, University of California Press

Saudi Desalination Plant Promises Cheaper Water

In a region dependent on fossil fuel-driven desalination plants, Saudi Arabia hopes to significantly reduce the cost of producing potable water from the salty waters of the Gulf with the Gulf’s first solar-powered desalination plant. If successful, the Saudi example could encourage other oil and sun-rich Gulf states, who rank among the world’s biggest carbon emitters, to reduce their emissions by building similar plants..

The solar-powered plant is being built by the King Abdulaziz City for Science and Technology (KACST), the epicenter of the kingdom’s efforts to break its puritan Islamic mould in a bid to ensure technological and economic development, and IBM, which has made water one of its key areas of focus.

“The culmination of our joint research initiatives has enabled us to radically reduce the cost of water through the development of nanotechnologies that revolutionize traditional desalination methods and renewable energy sources,” Takreem el Tohamy, IBM general manager for the Middle East and North Africa, told The National.

Traditional desalination plants in Saudi Arabia produce a cubic meter of water at a relatively high cost of $.067 to $1.47 compared to Singapore cubic meter and the United States, whose cost can be as little as $0.46 per cubic meter.

Located in Al Khafji, the solar-powered will also reduce cost by employing membranes instead of boiling processes to remove the salt from seawater, IBM and KACST said in a statement.IBM announced last year it had developed a new energy-eficient membrane that has a longer lifespan than previous materials. The Al Khafji plant will generate fresh water by pushing seawater through membranes to remove the salt. The solar component of the plant will produce the electricity needed to drive the machinery.

The project’s scale will overshadow pilot solar desalination plants that have been built in a number of Gulf countries, including a plant that opened in Abu Dhabi’s Al Gharbia region last year with a daily capacity of 68.2 cubic meters. Gulf countries have been trying to build cost-effective solar desalination plants for decades. Abu Dhabi built a plant at Umm al Nar in the 1980s, but it proved to be economically infeasible.

IBM and KACST predict the cost reduction despite the fact that the new plant will use electricity from concentrated solar technology that produces power at a cost many times higher than power stations fired by natural gas or oil. Electricity will come from concentrated photovoltaics, a technology that blends traditional photovoltaic cells with mirrors, lenses and motors to concentrate the rays of sun, thereby more than doubling the efficiency of the panels.

The technology is significantly more expensive than traditional photovoltaic cells alone but takes up less space and operates better in hot climates. The increased cost of using electricity from solar panels at Al Khafji will be offset by the vast efficiency gains of using the new membranes rather than heat to take the salt out of seawater.